December 9, 2022: The next Research Seminar of the Department of Political Science and International Affairs

The next Research Seminar of the Department of Political Science and International Affairs will be held on Friday, December 9, 2022, at 19.00 Saint-Petersburg time.

Speaker: Boris Sokolov, Director of The Laboratory for Comparative Social Studies, Higher School of Economics.

Title: The Dynamics of Political Support in Russia during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Three Waves of the Values in Crisis Panel Survey

Abstract: How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect the attitudes of Russians towards the country's political institutions? The aggregate data of public opinion polls suggest that, according to various available indicators, the level of political support in Russia slightly dropped in the early stages of the pandemic, by up to 10% compared to the pre-pandemic period. It, however, recovered relatively soon (less than in a year). Yet, this kind of data does not allow one to infer what aspects of the pandemic experience are the most important predictors of individual assessments of the government performance. To answer the latter question, we utilize the data from three Russian waves of the international survey ‘Values in Crisis’ (ViC). The first wave was carried online out in June 2020; the second - in April-May 2021; and the third - in November-December 2021. The sample sizes were 1,527, 1,199 and 1200 respectively; 761 respondents participated in all three waves. The main dependent variable is an integral index of political support that includes indicators of both diffuse and specific support. Regression modeling demonstrates that during the first wave of the pandemic in Russia (spring 2020) the direct experience of the disease and COVID-related anxiety were positively correlated with political support, while anxiety over economic losses showed negative correlation. A decrease in economic well-being had no effect on political support. Other significant predictors included right-wing political views and trust in traditional media (leading to an increase in support) and propensity to share COVID-skepticism (leading to a decrease in support). One year later, in the first half of 2021, the situation somewhat changed: neither experiencing COVID, nor COVID-related anxiety were no longer associated with support, while the effect of economic factors became more prominent. However, by the end of 2021 the effects of retrospective considerations disappeared again, while anxiety (both economic and health-related) remained to be a significant predictor of political support. Yet, the effect sizes were low, and the joint explanatory power of the pandemic-related variables was almost negligible in all three waves. We also did not find any consistent evidence of significant lagged effects of various indicators of pandemic experience. Together with aggregate-level evidence, this suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has had almost no impact on political trust and support in Russia.

Time: 9 Dec. 2022 07:00 PM SPb time

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84521903059?pwd=OVZMTEFHdStBSWxsN0M3REFDQ0l2UT09

Conference ID: 845 2190 3059

Access Code: 129882