Instrumental Methods of Economic Analysis
Core general courses
The course provides a comprehensive survey of the Macroeconomic Theory and Policies elements. The course will focus on comparative analysis of industrial and industrializing economies on the macro level, and on consideration of the current global trends, phenomena, and macroeconomic challenges related to the current world processes of informatization and globalization. By use of the tools of difference, differentials equations and dynamic optimization, the course covers the issues of determination of output and the price level, savings and investment, financial markets, monetary economics, the public sector, labor markets and unemployment, international macroeconomics. The course analyzes macroeconomic policies (fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, trade policies) in selected countries, their success or failure. In particular, financial crisis will be analyzed taking into account both actions by national governments and international organizations, e.g. the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the United Nations.
Advanced Econometrics is aimed at providing practical aspects of essential and advanced applied econometric techniques, used in applied data analysis in a variety of fields in economics and finance, and, hence, to be applied in research the students do in their term and graduation papers. The principal aim of the classes is thus to prepare students for doing empirical research in economics.
Core courses of the programm
Most branches of modern economics use mathematics and statistics extensively, and some important areas of mathematical research are motivated by economic problems. Economists and mathematicians have made important contributions to each other's disciplines. Economist Kenneth Arrow, for example, did path-breaking work in the field of mathematical optimization; and in 1994, Mathematician John Nash was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics for work he did in game theory that has become central to contemporary economic theory. Haverford’s Area of Concentration in Mathematical Economics enables students in each of the disciplines not only to gain proficiency in the other, but also to appreciate the ways in which they are related.
Models of Economic Growth, Development and Transition
The course gives a broad spectrum of the contemporary theories of macroeconomic dynamics. It contains four main sections. The first one is an overview of the growth theory evolution: from Adam Smith and David Ricardo conceptions (including modern mathematical treatments) to Solow, Ramsey – Cass – Koopmans and Samuelson – Diamond models. The second one explores mainstream models of endogenous growth including Romer, Lucas, Aghion – Howitt, Galor – Zeira and some other famous models. The third one is devoted to the Post Keynesian models of economic growth. These models emphasize the special role of aggregate demand dynamics as the important factor of growth. This section starts from Kalecki’s static macroeconomic theory and continues with various versions of Kaleckian growth model (by Amadeo, by Bhaduri – Marglin, by Dutt etc.). Further this section touches upon the “Thirlwall law” and other aspects of “balance of-payments-constrained growth” and finishes with the contemporary Post Keynesian models linking growth and consumption (by Trezzini and Kapeller – Schutz). The fourth section is the introduction to the theories of development and transition. This section emphasizes the latter (economics of transition) because it is relevant for understanding of the problems of the Post-Soviet Russian economy. The main themes are shock therapy and gradualism, liberalization and privatization, institutional trap and soft budget constraints in different Post-Socialist countries (Russia, China, Poland, Hungary etc). The prerequisites for this course are intermediate macroeconomics and intermediate microeconomics.
Game Theory and Decision Making
Theory of Games is a theory for mathematical modelling of situations of conflict and cooperation among intelligent rational decision-makers in such situations, such as economic competition, military conflicts, voting problems etc. Conflict situations are modelled by strategic non-cooperative games studying the optimal behavior of agents (players). Since a conflict outcome depends on the strategy choice by all players, there is no unique solution concept defining the optimal behavior of players. The main solution concepts include domination of strategies, Pareto optimality, Nash equilibria and their refinements. They will be studied for static and dynamic models. Cooperation brings to joint behavior of players for achievement of a maximum total gain. The main problem of cooperation is how to divide this gain (or loss) among the players. The solution of this problem consists of mathematical modelling of fairness (which has no unique definition). Various traits of fairness are formalized in axioms, and then a complete and consistent set of axioms defines a cooperative game solution being a shared rule of the total gain. The main cooperative game solutions include the core, the Shapley value, the nucleolus et al., so their axiomatic characterizations will be studied. Theory of decision-making in the course considers mathematical modelling of the aggregation of different individual preferences in the unique social one. This is a part of the Social Choice theory. The main models are those connected with voting. Analysis of the most known voting rules and their connection with cooperative game solutions are also given. Theory of decision-making in the course considers the mathematical modelling of the aggregation of different individual preferences in the unique social one. This is a part of the social choice theory. The main models are those connected with voting. The course gives analysis of the most known voting rules and their connection with cooperative game solutions. Theory of decision-making in the course discusses the mathematical modelling of the aggregation of different individual preferences in the unique social one. This is a part of the social choice theory. The main models are those connected with voting. Analysis of the most known voting rules and their connection with cooperative game solutions are given. For successful learning students should be familiar with mathematical analysis, linear algebra, the probability theory - at the basic undergraduate level.
Economics of Health and Public Policy
Health is the most fundamental measure of economic progress. There is an increasing interest in health and health care as well as the role of government in securing these. Ambitious and controversial health care reform programmes are being introduced or are on-going across Russia, Central Asia and parts of Eastern Europe as well as in Western Europe, Latin America and the US. This economics course in ‘Health Management and Policy’ is a course covering the principles of microeconomic theory and the fundamental concepts of the field of health economics. The focus is on individual behavior (demand), firm behavior (supply), and how these forces interact to yield market outcomes (prices and quantities) in health and health care.
The purpose of this elective course is to familiarize the students with advanced methods of econometric research in the field of corporate finance. The course focuses on the problem of endogeneity and the ways to address it in the analysis of cross-sectional and panel data. The course is of applied nature: the material is presented, whenever possible, in a non-technical way, examples of empirical studies published in leading international finance journals are discussed, and the lectures are supplemented by exercises in the computer lab. The topics covered include the causes and consequences of endogeneity, potential outcomes and treatment effects, instrumental variables methods, panel data techniques, difference-in-difference estimation techniques, as well as an overview of the matching models, regression discontinuity designs and sample selection. Computer exercises using the statistical software package “Stata” are an integral part of the course, which ensures that the students get hands-on experience of analyzing real world data. The course consists of lectures (16 hours) and computer labs (16 hours). After the course, the students should understand the causes and consequences of endogeneity, know the main methods for addressing this problem, and be able to apply these methods when conducting econometric analysis in the field of corporate finance. The students should also be able to use the statistical package “Stata”, including its programming options (the so-called do-files).The finance component of the course manifests itself in the application of econometric methods to the analysis of typical issues in the field of corporate finance and corporate governance, such as the impact of credit rating on companies’ financial decisions, the effect of ownership structure on firm value, and the impact of the banking sector deregulation on the behavior of banks and borrowers. Such applications, in the form of either classroom examples or exercises in the computer lab, are intended to prepare the students for conducting own research, including their masters’ theses. The students’ knowledge of the foundations of econometrics is a key prerequisite for the successful completion of the course.
The course focuses on understanding of the open economy macroeconomics, the theory of international finance, and on their real world applications. Understanding of the macroeconomic policies, foreign exchange markets and world capital markets make a necessary competence of every economist. In particular, the course studies effects of banking, finance, foreign direct investment as well as the macroeconomic policy and institutions on international capital flows, world production division, capital accumulation, unemployment, inflation, income distribution and social conflicts in industrialized and developing countries. The course will discuss related professional literature (theoretical, empirical, and policy-oriented). Special attention in the course is devoted to the process of globalization which can be understood as the increasing openness and interdependence among countries.
Applied Econometrics of Panel- and Qualitative Data
The aim of the course is to present the regional economic theories and to develop skills for analysis of spatial dimension of economic development at different geographical levels: global, national, regional and a city level. The course includes the following topics: 1. Introduction. Regional economics as a field. The basic concepts. 2. Classical and neoclassical regional and urban economics. 3. Theory of “new” international trade. 4. Theoretical and empirical models of “new” economic geography. 5. Urban economics. 6. Spatial econometrics.
The focus of the course is a model of monopolistic competition and its applications in international trade. It discusses evolution of trade theory, including Ricardo and Heckscher-Ohlin models and their modern interpretations. A substantial part of the course is dedicated to empirical studies of trade policy based on estimation of gravity model using aggregated and disaggregated trade data. The course includes firm-level analysis of effect of liberalization on productivity and industry performance based on estimation of production function, as well as international organization of production, foreign direct investments, localization of multinational firms worldwide. We will discuss macroeconomic implication of the trade theory (if time permits).
Time Series Analysis
The aim of the course is to develop advanced econometrics knowledge and skills in Time Series Analysis. The course is mostly empirical and project-oriented. Every student will analyze the same time series data set (assigned individually at the beginning of the course) and practice in applying of the studied Time Series Analysis techniques, i.e. 1) basic time series analysis methods, 2) basic smoothing techniques, 3) stationary processes modeling and forecasting (ARIMA methodology), 4) non-stationary and co-integration models, 4) selected non-linear models of time series. All classes take place in a computer lab. Basic programming skills and/or basic knowledge of R will support effective learning.
Mathematical Models of Revenue Management
Mathematical Models of Revenue management (MMRM) has gained attention recently as one of the most successful application areas of operations research (OR). In the mid 50-s of the XX century, it became necessary to use automated revenue management systems in the aviation industry to improve the income of airlines. Currently, automated revenue management systems are widely used in the transport industry and the hospitality industry.
The main task of the course is to acquaint students with the theory and practice of revenue management. MMRM is the promising discipline not only from a scientific point of view, it allows to put into practice the knowledge of students, obtained in the courses of studying such disciplines as: time series analysis, statistics, simulation modelling, operations research, math programming, optimization methods, decision analysis, and others. With the various methods of economic and mathematical modelling, students learn to use all the tools to solve the complex economic problems, to evaluate the effectiveness of implemented methods that will further allow them to use these skills in practice in large IT or finance companies.
Modeling in Demography
The aim of the course is to teach students to analyze the basic patterns of changes in demographic processes and age structure of the population. The competences of the learner are to learn about characteristics of the basic demographic processes, basic results of the latest research published in the leading professional journals. Students will be able to analyze the basic regularities of changes in demographic processes and population age structure. They will develop skills analysis of demographic processes using mathematical methods and will be able to use modern software to solve demographic problems.
The main topics of the Course include: Research methods for demographic processes; Analysis of fertility; Analysis of mortality and life expectancy; Migration analysis; Analysis of the demographic situation; Determinants and consequences of population aging; Mathematical methods in the study of socio-demographic dynamics; Demographic forecasting; Demographic characteristics in terms of development; Demographic policy.
Optional Discipline from another Master Programme
Research Training and Internships
First Year Research Paper
Preparation and Defense of Master Thesis