Scientific seminar «The influence of economic news on the household`s decisions in the countries of BRICS»

The study is devoted to the role of information context in dynamics of consumption/savings decisions in the countries of BRICS.

The study is devoted to the role of information context in dynamics of consumption/savings decisions in the countries of BRICS. First the Russian case was investigated. The basis for the Russian case study was a selection of news from major Russian TV channels for 2006-2016. The news available to ordinary viewers was analyzed. News was defined as negative or positive with use of special program tools of sentiment analysis. It turned out that the increased uncertainty (the spread of positive and negative news) leads to choice of consumption to the detriment of savings, which, thereafter, reduces the investment base of the economy.

The authors analyzed the connection of the tonality of news and its changes with the business cycle. An "information cycle" was found out, which, with some lag, correlates with the cycle in consumption/savings decisions in the Russian Federation. The perspectives of the study are Brazilian, Chinese, Indian and South-African cases. Also the deviations from the traditional model of rational expectations are going to be investigated, and the hypotheses of the “rational inattention” should be tested. Based on the study, recommendations should be offered for the public policy adjusting.