Vladislav Viktorovich Afanasyev defended his PhD thesis on "Using Non-Financial Information to Predict Insolvency of Service Enterpr ises"

The work was highly appreciated by the members of the Dissertation Defense Committee, and they unanimously decided to recommend that the Dissertation Council on Economics award Vladislav Viktorovich Afanasyev the academic degree of Candidate of Economic Sciences.

 

The dissertation addressed the issues of forecasting the insolvency of companies. Forecasting the insolvency of companies is traditionally based on the analysis of financial indicators. But when it comes to private firms, especially in the context of possible distortion of their reporting due to business fragmentation, shadow schemes, or fraud, this method may not be effective enough. The dissertation offers a new perspective on this problem, focusing on the inclusion of non-financial data in forecasts to improve their accuracy.

 

The study begins with testing classic models based solely on financial indicators, using data from Russian and European service companies. The results show a significant lag in forecast accuracy for Russian firms compared to European counterparts. Further, using specific service industries as an example, it is demonstrated that the inclusion of additional non-financial parameters significantly improves the accuracy of forecast models.

 

In addition to already known factors, such as a company's reputation or its age, the study uses new variables, such as business inspection data.

 

The findings of the work will be useful for credit institutions and counterparties of private companies in the service sector seeking to minimize risks.