Professor Mikhail Anufriev

We are glad to announce forthcoming open research seminar of St Petersburg School of Economics and Management with support from European University in St Petersburg. Professor Mikhail Anufriev (University of Technology, Sydney/European University at St.Petersburg) will present his paper «Simple Forecasting Heuristics that Make us Smart: Evidence from Different Market Experiments» (joint with Cars Hommes and Tomasz Makarewicz). The seminar will take place on Jan 27, 2017, at 17:30, at Kantemirovskaya 3A, room 345.
If you would like to attend the seminar, please send your name and affiliation to: ykaprova@hse.ru.

ABSTRACT: 

We study a model in which individual agents use simple linear first order price forecasting rules, adapting them to the complex evolving market environment with a Genetic Algorithm optimisation procedure. The novelties are: (1) a parsimonious experimental foundation of individual forecasting behaviour; (2) an explanation of individual and aggregate behaviour in four different experimental settings, (3) improved one-period and 50-period ahead forecasting of lab experiments, and (4) a characterisation of the mean, median and empirical distribution of forecasting heuristics. The median of the distribution of GA forecasting heuristics can be used in designing or validating simple Heuristic Switching Model.