The First Seminar of the Research and Study Group on Skills Demand and Artificial Intelligence: Interim Results and Strategic Plans
The First Seminar of the "Skills Demand and AI" was held. The interim results of an analysis of the impact of AI on the Russian labor market are presented, including an analysis of salary bonuses, substitution and complement effects.
On January 29, 2026, Research and Study Group "Skills Demand and Artificial Intelligence" held its first meeting. The group members discussed the interim results of their work within the "Demand for Skills and Generative Artificial Intelligence" research project, key theoretical aspects of AI's impact on the labour market, and outlined strategic plans for future activities.
Andrei Ternikov, Head of the Group and Associate Professor at the Department of Management, opened the meeting by presenting an overview of the collaborative work accomplished and current ideas. A large-scale task of collecting and annotating vacancy data was completed, including classification by OKVED (Russian Classification of Economic Activities) and OKZ (Russian Classification of Occupations). Konstantin Iliashchenko, who contributed to this area, presented prospects for transitioning to regional measurement and a range of other key skill indicators. Special attention was given to forming updated dictionaries of skills related to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Generative AI (GenAI), taking into account Russian tools and the specifics of the labour market. The search and verification of terms were carried out by project manager Gennadii Manichev.
Vera Maltseva, Director of the Centre for Vocational Education and Skills Development, presented the theoretical framework of the research. She emphasized that AI is changing the structure of skill demand, affecting non-routine cognitive tasks, which leads to labour market polarization. Attention was focused on the importance of analyzing "skill bundles" for a deeper interpretation of complementarity and substitution effects. Key trends in skill demand were also highlighted: an increase in social, digital (including specialized AI skills), and complex cognitive skills.
Initial data analysis revealed a dynamic growth in demand for AI skills in the Russian labour market. Preliminary regression analysis results indicated that AI skills are generally associated with wage premiums. However, for GenAI skills, a substitution effect was observed in routine cognitive tasks (e.g., copywriting and office work), which may lead to a negative impact on wages in these segments. At the same time, a complementarity effect was noted in IT professions and managerial positions.
Team's short-term plans include preparing the first article for publication and the concept development of a second, more extensive paper. Opportunities for submitting applications to participate in scientific conferences, conducting thematic and open seminars, and forming a refined database of developed algorithms and data will also be explored. As part of creating such a repository, the group plans to publish the collected dataset for a wider scientific community, which will enhance data transparency and accessibility. Special attention in future work will be given to an in-depth analysis of AI exposure, the decomposition of substitution and complementarity effects, and the development of forecasts for the Russian labour market.
Research and Study Group on Skills Demand and Artificial Intelligence will continue its work, regularly informing about the project's progress and results. Stay tuned for updates on the group's page!
