Третье заседание регулярного научного семинара департамента экономики СПб ШЭМ НИУ ВШЭ

На третьем заседании регулярного научного семинара департамента экономики СПб ШЭМ НИУ ВШЭ с докладом "Adaptive Learning and Survey Expectations of Inflation" выступит профессор Центра экономических исследований и образования CERGE-EI (Прага) Сергей Слободян (Sergey Slobodyan).
 

Аннотация доклада

In this paper, we use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters 
to evaluate alternative assumptions about the way expectations are 
formed in DSGE models. The integration of this additional source of 
information in our models can also improve their fit given the excellent 
predictive quality of these surveys. Consistency between the survey and 
the model forecast makes it easier for the modeler to integrate timely 
survey publications in the forecasting process and to deliver a more 
comprehensive interpretation of the actual and expected state of the 
economy. Such an interpretation of the business cycle should also leave 
room for a specific role of expectation errors, driven by 
over-optimistic or -pessimistic beliefs (Milani 2012, Eusepi and Preston 
2011, Fuster et al 2012) and of news innovations that are not yet 
incorporated in realized macroeconomic variables (Schmitt-Grohe and 
Uribe 2012). Most likely, the validity of these results will heavily 
depend on the consistency between the models that underlie the two 
forecasts.

3 декабря 15:20, ауд.  306, ул. Седова, 55, корп.2